Wednesday, September 16, 2009

WNBA Playoffs

So with the playoffs kicking off tonight (and the games actually on TV...WOW!) it's time for some predictions.

Tonight's games:
Atlanta @ Detroit (8:00 pm, ESPN2)
Seattle @ Los Angeles (10:00 pm, ESPN2)

Atlanta Dream vs Detroit Shock

Game 1: Wed 9/16 (Detroit)- 8:00 pm (ESPN2)
Game 2: Fri 9/18 (Atlanta)- 7:30 pm (NBA TV)
Game 3: Sun 9/20 (Atlanta)- 3:00 pm (If necessary) (ESPN2)


It's reality time for Atlanta and their first round games are going to be the toughest games they have played all season. Why? The Detroit Shock are a.) on a tear b.) no WAY are the defending Champs going to bow out in the first round (a-la Tennessee Lady Vols). On paper, Atlanta is a more balanced team but that doesn't take into account the factor of the playoffs and what it can do to a team (good and bad). Some notes:

-5 Double figure scorers for the Dream compared to 3 for Shock (1 for each team might be out).
-Katie Smith and Chamique Holdsclaw are doubtful to play in Game 1, perhaps the entire series.
-Atlanta scores average 84 PPG and allows 82 PPG
-Detroit scores 78 PPG and allows 77 PPG
-Rebounds are close: Atlanta 37, Detroit 36
-Rebounds allowed (this is where Atlanta will suffer): Atlanta 37, Detroit 32

Here are some keys for Detroit to win: If Cheryl Ford remains healthy and dominates Erika de Souza (who is averaging 2 more boards per game then Cheryl), the Shock will win. If Katie Smith can play in the series, they will win (right now it's unclear if she will play in the first game or at all).

Keys for Atlanta to win: Limit the number of second chance opportunities for the Shock and perhaps, Atlanta can sneak out the win....but I just don't see that happening.


Detroit wins the series 2-0. (I'm sorry Atlanta, I love you, but first playoffs against Detroit? Sorry ladies!).

Seattle Storm vs Los Angeles Sparks

Game 1: Wed 9/16 (LA) - 10:00 pm (ESPN2)
Game 2: Fri 9/18 (Seattle)- 10:00 pm (NBA TV)
Game 3: Sun 9/20 (Seattle)- 5:00 pm (if necessary) (ESPN 2)

Seattle will be without All-World player Lauren Jackson for this series BUT they get many of their other players back. Swin Cash, Sue Bird, Tanisha Wright and Katie Geralds should all be in uniform and ready to play tonight. Geralds is still pretty hurt from her injured PCL but just having her on the floor for a few minutes will create some positive vibes for the Storm. The Sparks, on the other hand, have as much playoff experience as the Storm and are flying high with emotion. Nobody on that teams wants legendary Lisa Leslie to retire without a WNBA title this season (heck, how storybook would that be...a-la David Robinson?). The Sparks are playing really good ball right now and they are healthy. Some notes:

-Both teams have 5 players scoring in double figures but Seattle is down one
-Both teams average 74 points per game and allow the same 73
-Sparks have the edge in rebounds: 37-32
-Sparks have the edge in allowed rebounds: 30-32 (but close enough)

For Seattle to win: One name-Swin Cash. If Cash plays BIG (boards and points) Seattle could win the series. What is going to hurt them is no Lauren Jackson in the playoffs. Sure, they are playing great ball without her but LA is on a mission and they know how to win and they know how to use emotion effectively (loaded with successful NCAA and Olympic Champions).

For LA to win: Rebounds, rebounds and rebounds. Stop Swin Cash and limit the assists Sue Bird gets (in other words, protect the low block) and LA can win this series.

This is the series to watch...arguably the best one of the playoffs.

Los Angeles wins 2-1.

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